【拆息全升】港匯走弱令金管局一周入市四次買入港元近六百億！低息玩完利率暴升令樓價下跌？HIBOR升幾多先影響樓價？１１分鐘為你講解HIBOR現時的應用方法｜拆息飊升｜弱方兌換保證｜港元沽盤｜SM投資記

【拆息全升】港匯走弱令金管局一周入市四次買入港元近六百億！低息玩完利率暴升令樓價下跌？HIBOR升幾多先影響樓價？１１分鐘為你講解HIBOR現時的應用方法｜拆息飊升｜弱方兌換保證｜港元沽盤｜SM投資記

The HKMA has recently been taking over selling orders for Hong Kong dollars, entering the market four times in one week and buying nearly HK$60 billion in total. This proves that funds are rapidly flowing out of Hong Kong. Because of the interest rate differential , funds will only continue to flow out, so the low HIBOR rate is only a short-term effect. The HIBOR rate will rise very quickly. As HIBOR rises, the concept of supply exceeding rent will become invalid immediately, which will make property buyers lack the desire , so the property market will soon fall again. But is this really the case? Hello everyone, I am Ami. Some netizens think that the housing price trend will go down because the supply-rental balance will disappear when they see the HIBOR rising. I think these opinions are very far-fetched because the housing market is extremely sluggish at the beginning of 2025. No one cares about the supply-rental balance problem. In the video about the housing price prediction, I only saw that the housing price has a support point because the supply-rental balance has attracted more attention this year because old-school investors will choose the price of supply-rental balance as their purchase price. Because the supply-rental balance means that the owner only needs to rent out the house after buying it, and there will be no expenditure , and there will be someone to help. The principal of the house is just a cash flow concept , not the only way to measure the housing price. I have explained the concept very clearly in my previous videos. I can’t say it again in every video. Interested viewers can watch it for themselves. If users think that the housing market is bound to fall, they will go out to buy a house. Of course, the rise in interest rates does generate some signals for us investors, but we don’t need to be pessimistic about the housing market immediately, but need to continue to pay attention. Because the comments I saw seem to show that the audience is very sensitive to the fluctuations of HIBOR, so in this video I will talk about how HIBOR should be applied . At the same time, I will talk about HIBOR. At what level will the interest rate rise be worthy of our attention as investors? Friends who want to know, remember to watch this video to the end. Friends who support me, please click “like” now . Not only can you express your support for me , but you can also find this video in the playlist and watch it again in the future . Finally, if you want to receive information that is helpful to your wealth on a regular basis, you can subscribe to our channel now to receive the videos we update for you every Friday at 8:30 am. Now let’s get into today’s content. In fact, the interest rate differential problem will cause funds to flow away quickly. The HIBOR interest rate will rise rapidly soon. This topic has not stopped since the beginning of May. 130 billion flowed into Hong Kong in May, but it is only now Nearly 60 billion has flowed out, but it is still less than half. I see many people like to talk about negative factors. They will look at the speed and time and draw a linear relationship. So they think that the money will continue to flow out soon. Of course, we investors only look at the interest rate instead of focusing on how much money the banking system has. The amount of money in the banking system is purely for us to analyze how the HIBOR interest rate will change in the future. Now 60 billion has flowed out. For a month, the HIBOR interest rate is only 0.8% as of July 4, 2025. That is, when 10 billion flowed out for the first time, the HIBOR interest rate rose a little and then fell to 0.7%. Even if there is a total outflow of 60 billion now, HIBOR has only risen. As investors, we only need to look at the flow of funds and whether the HIBOR rate has risen again. However, you should note that from May to now, the interest rate has maintained a spread for two months , and less than half of the money has flowed out. Will the funds flow out in large quantities if more time passes? I dare not say no, but the chance will be lower because when the HIBOR rate continues to rise, the spread will continue to narrow , which will reduce the incentive to earn the spread. Of course, I don’t have a crystal ball and I don’t know how high the HIBOR rate will rise in the future , but for the time being, the interest rate of 0.8% has no effect on investors at all, because we need to see that the most important factor affecting the property price is not HIBOR. It is not because the supply is equal to the rent , but the attitude of the bank. Because the HIBOR rate is higher than the mortgage rate, the bank will not want to do mortgage business, which has become a very strong negative factor. At the beginning of the year, if the owner has his property appraised, he will find that even if the house price has not changed much, the bank will deliberately reduce your property appraisal in order to avoid doing mortgage business. Because the bank’s mortgage business was just a social responsibility at that time . In fact, the mortgage business had to pay back to the customer to achieve this special effect. So at this time, what we need to consider is at what level HIBOR will start to become a resistance to house prices? It depends on when the bank will start to narrow its profits. H is generally The interest rate cap is H plus 1.3% to 1.4%. The current interest rate is still 3.5% . That is, when 3.5% is subtracted from 1.3% to 1.4%, the bank can still make enough money when lending mortgages. That is , when HIBOR reaches 2.1% to 2.2%, the interest margin earned by the bank will begin to narrow until HIBOR and mortgage rates are aligned , instead of paying customers as before. But now HIBOR is only 0.8%, not to mention 3.5% , there is still a long way to go to 2.1% , so for the time being, investors, there is nothing to worry about. I see that many viewers will sanctify the valuation of banks and think that banks will be short of interest based on what the audience thinks is emotional. Factor adjustment believes that Hong Kong’s property valuations should be continuously low to be reasonable. In fact, banks are just profit-making institutions. They just do some business with a spread. Therefore, bank valuations mainly depend on market conditions , transaction prices, and whether the banks themselves want to lend money to grab business. As I just said, because the HIBOR interest rate is higher than the mortgage interest rate, banks will not want to lend mortgages, so the valuations have always been unusually low, which is a very negative factor. When funds poured in in May, I threatened that banks would increase valuations in order to grab business . As a result, the valuation index CVI continued to rise and reached 59.79 points last week, which is already higher than 50 points. If you are an owner, it is not difficult to find that the valuation of your unit has recently increased. In last week’s video, we saw that Kingswood Villas and City One had some activity. You also saw that this week’s CCL continued to rise by more than 0.3%. In fact, the mortgage applications received by the mortgage department of the bank are closer to the market than the online transactions we investors see. If there is money to be made, the bank is very happy to quickly raise the valuation, which will cause the CVI to continue to rise. You can also expect that the property market will improve in the short and medium term . At this time, the valuation has obviously increased. The transaction price has also increased. Whether the owner is willing to sell at a large price is another story. Although back to the theme of the video , as long as the HIBOR interest rate does not go to the point where the bank cannot make money, the bank will still tend to be close to the market price or even lean towards the owner to estimate a little more. After all, the bank’s responsibility is to The purpose is to earn the interest rate difference. Although there is an interest rate difference when buying US Treasury bonds with money now , if you simply want to earn the interest rate difference, you will generally only buy short-term Treasury bonds of 3 months to 1 year to avoid the risk of loss caused by market price fluctuations. Many people also ignore that under the linked exchange rate system, there will be an exchange rate fluctuation of about 1.3% between the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar. Since no one can guarantee whether the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate will rise in the future, but now short-term US Treasury bonds are about 4%. After deducting the exchange rate risk , the HIBOR is expected to rise to more than 3%, so the risk of banks deliberately not doing mortgage business is not very large. At the same time, because the mortgage business can generally earn at least two years of customers’ money , using bonds to earn interest rate difference will only earn short-term money and fail to lock in long-term profits. At the same time, the market expects that interest rates will continue to be cut in September. At that time, the interest rate spread will continue to narrow. The incentive for capital outflow and selling the interest rate spread will be even smaller. Therefore, second-hand owners may not necessarily give buyers a lot of bargaining space. Therefore, there is no need for everyone to be overly sensitive to the rise in HIBOR. Because banks will still help owners more than buyers at this moment until they can no longer make money in the mortgage business. Therefore, the focus now is whether banks are willing to increase the valuation rather than the supply-to-rent ratio. The supply- to-rent ratio is just a measure of the buyer’s defensive ability. Because banks have deliberately made low valuations for too long , so the previous lowest HIBOR of 0.53% is used to calculate the rent of the First City, which is about 14,000 yuan, but the same unit can be bought for about 4 million yuan. In this case, a 90% mortgage is still a supply-to-rent ratio. Wouldn’t it be too cost-effective? It’s just that the market price is not as high as the bank’s valuation , but the tenant can only make a 70% mortgage, so a 70% mortgage is used to calculate. Last week, I said that the most exaggerated unit was much more expensive than the market price and valuation. Even if he provided a Cap Rate (capped interest rate) is also for rent-sharing, so why not do it? So we don’t need to be afraid of HIBOR rising or capital outflow. After all, only 60 billion has flowed out of 130 billion. In addition to the factors I mentioned above, I believe that the chances of capital outflows to cause HIBOR to rise and banks to collect money are not high. At the same time, the Fed was inconsistent about rate cuts last year. Will there be a sudden rate cut in September this year like last September, which will cause capital to flow out like in 2009 and then flow in more quickly ? This is up to you to think about. Recall Sierra When Sea was launched, people on the Internet said that the property market was bleak and scared many property owners to sell at low prices. Those who were confident enough to buy properties at that time should have just taken possession of the properties and resold them in just three months, and they have already made a good profit. That is, the property market has improved in the past few months. This investor just realized that the market was unusual and made a profit easily. That is, the online world is still cursing that people who buy properties will lose a lot of money, while others quietly invest in Hong Kong and make money. These are the differences between the perspectives of investors and ordinary people. After all, a person can only make money within his or her range. If you are lucky enough to believe what people on the Internet say about the bleak world, the price paid by those who sell properties at low prices and wait for the decline is far higher than that of the property owners who bought them at a high price. After all, long-term currency depreciation is the core factor that drives property prices up. At this moment, do all property owners still blindly believe the opinions of those experts ? Let the market tell us investors in the future. That’s all I have to say today . Thank you for taking the time to watch our video. If you want to know more about buying properties and investing, you can also watch the two videos on the left. Finally, if you think this channel is useful and helpful to you, please remember to subscribe to this channel, give me 1 Like and share this video with your friends. At the same time, I wish you who read this can achieve financial freedom as soon as possible. See you next time. Bye.

影片內容介紹：
金管局最近頻頻承接港元沽盤，在一周入市四次，累計買入近六百億港元，證明資金快速在香港流走，因為利差關係，資金只會持續流走，所以 HIBOR 利率低企只是一個短期效應，HIBOR 利率將會很快地上升，由於 HIBOR 會升，供平過租的概念就會即時失效，令樓市買家的意欲欠缺，所以樓市即將很快又會回跌，但事實到底是不是這樣呢？，大家好 我是阿米，部分網民見到 HIBOR 上升，就認為因為供平過租會消失，樓價趨勢就會向下，我就認為這些意見是十分牽強的，因為2025年初是一個樓市極淡的情況之下，根本沒有人在意供平過租的租金問題，而我在樓價預測的影片，只是見到樓價由於供平租出現支撐點，才在今年叫做多人注意，因為老派投資者會選擇供平租的價格，作為他們的買入價格，因為供平租代表業主買入後，只需要出租就可以零支出等升值，兼有人幫手還買樓本金，只是一個現金流概念，而不是用來衡量樓價的唯一方法，而概念上的東西，我在之前的影片都說得很清楚，我無辦法在每次影片也說一次，有興趣的觀眾可以自己看，如果用家一旦認為樓市跌定了，就會走出來買樓，當然利率上升的確是對我們投資者來說有些訊號產生，但是我們是不需要馬上對樓市立即看淡，而是需要持續地去關注，因為我見到的留言，似乎觀眾對 HIBOR 的波動是十分敏感，所以在這條影片，我會說 HIBOR 到底要怎樣應用才對，同時說 HIBOR 利率回升去到一個甚麼水平，才值得我們投資者關注，想知道的朋友，記住把這條影片看到最後，其實說利差問題，資金很快會流走，HIBOR利率即將會快速上升這個話題，由五月初資金流入香港到現在也沒有停止過，5月有1300億流入香港，但是現在才有近600億的錢流出，仍然是一半都沒有，我見到很多人喜歡說利淡因素的時候，就會看著速度和時間，就這樣拉線性關係，所以就覺得錢很快就會繼續流走，當然我們投資者看的只是利率，而不是集中看銀行體系有多少錢，想知道更多請完整觀看這影片。

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【拆息全升】港匯走弱令金管局一周入市四次買入港元近六百億！低息玩完利率暴升令樓價下跌？HIBOR升幾多先影響樓價？１１分鐘為你講解HIBOR現時的應用方法｜拆息飊升｜弱方兌換保證｜港元沽盤｜SM投資記
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影片目錄:

0:00 簡介
2:21 如何看待資金流走?
3:56 HIBOR影響的關鍵因素
5:22 實際上的銀行估價
6:53 銀行對估價的取態
8:17 現時影響樓價的關鍵
9:38 時光倒流25年4月時

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